Kabardino-Balkaria+-+Russian+Effectiveness

=Russian Forces In Kabardino-Balkaria Unlikely To Stop Insurgent Activity In the Next Twelve Months=

Executive Summary:
The current strategy of the insurgents in Kabardino-Balkaria (KBR) seeks to create remote bases in the mountainous regions of the republic in order to train new fighters, conduct guerilla attacks, and establish safe passages across the North Caucasus region for insurgents to pass from republic to republic. The newly created Russian mountain units have very little experience and often operate from poor intelligence, making them ineffective against the insurgents. Despite police and military reinforcements in the country, the insurgents continue to grow and actively attack throughout the republic. Due to this, it is unlikely that the security forces will successfully combat insurgent activities over the next twelve months.

===Discussion:=== Insurgents in KBR make it a top priority to obtain control over the mountanious regions in the Northern Caucasus in order to set up remote facilities where they can prepare young fighters to join the fight in the future[|.] The strategy of taking control of the foothills and mountainous regions of the northern section of the North Caucasian range allows the insurgents to have access to resources including extra manpower, supplies, and provides safe passage for the insurgents from republic to republic[|.]

According to Yuri Tomchak, the Interior Minister of KBR, as of 5 September 2007, about 500 militants are hiding in mountainous areas of the republic[|.] The threat of insurgent attacks deter the police forces and army units from pro-actively searching the mountains[|.] In the Elbrus District, located in the southwest corner of KBR (see map), insurgents established a stronghold due to the support from the local population[|.] In August 2007, an insurgent group attacked a police checkpoint in the town of Tyrnauz of the Elbrus District killing one police officer and wounding another, which comes in the wake of the deaths of two senior police officers earlier this summer as a result of the increase insurgent activity in this district[|.] This summer, the insurgents have significantly increased their activities, specifically in KBR. The militants are now very active in some areas of the region and still remain quiet in others, however, it is clear that plans and preparations for future attacks are under way[|.]

In response to this increased activity, in the summer of 2007 the Russian military sent specialized mountain warfare units to the North Caucasus, however, the implementation to these units into active operations will not occur until the end of 2007[|.] Although, a training exercise took place between July to 13 August 2007 in the Elbrus District of KBR to measure the capabilities of the units, the mountain forces lack real counterinsurgency experience[|.]

On 8 May 2007, a seminar on fighting crime and corruption in the North Caucasus region was held in Nalchik, the capital of KBR, between high ranking officials of KBR and staff from North Caucasian police academies[|.] During the seminar, officials stated that the poor collection of intelligence on the insurgents is one of the main problems facing the security forces in KBR[|.] Fueling the lack of good intelligence is the distrust of law enforcement by the local population[|.] Interior Minister Tomchak stated that, "only popular trust in the law enforcement bodies would help establish an effective system of getting information from the grass roots.[|"]

Additional Comments:
None.

Source Reliability: 9 Analytic Confidence: 8

Matthew Gurto

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