Violence+Database+-+Key+Findings

=**Steady, Low Level Insurgent Attacks Likely To Continue Spreading Westward Toward Ingushetia And Kabardino-Balkaria Over The Next Twelve Months**=

**Summary:**
The number of attacks in the North Caucasus in September 2007 is 56 percent higher than the number of attacks a year earlier in September 2006. Over that time period of 13 months, 40 percent of all attacks occurred in Chechnya while Ingushetia accounted for 33 percent. However in August and September of 2007, the number of attacks in Ingushetia is 58 percent larger than the number of attacks in Chechnya. A recent surge of insurgent activity in the republic of Kabardino-Balkaria coupled with rising violence in Ingushetia points to a geographic shift of violence westward from Chechnya. The average number of casualties per violent incident in the North Caucasus over the past 13 months is 2.12. Thus, low casualty frequencies coupled with a 93 percent increase in shootings from September 2006 to September 2007 shows a distinct trend towards steady, low-level conflict. Security forces and government officials are the primary targets of this increase in violence, with these two groups consisting of 73 percent of casualties over the past 13 months. Through the quantitative and geographic analysis of the insurgent attacks from September 2006 through September 2007, it is likely that attacks will continue to move westward across the North Caucasus with a continued increase in low level conflicts primarily targeting Russian and republic security forces due to the development of hotspot trends in Ingushetia and Kabardino-Balkaria, and the high frequency of casualties by servicemen over the last 4 months. However, after adding September 2007 to October 2007 and analyzing these two months with September and October 2006 to show a comparative analysis of the attacks the recent surge of insurgent activity in the republic of Kabardino-Balkaria coupled with rising violence in Ingushetia and Dagestan likely points to the geographic shift of the center of violence externally from Chechnya to a new focal point in Ingushetia.


 * **//Number://** The number of attacks in the North Caucasus in September 2007 is 56 percent higher than the number of attacks a year earlier in September 2006. Over that time period of 13 months, 40 percent of all attacks occurred in Chechnya while Ingushetia accounted for 33 percent. In Nazran, Ingushetia 35 individual attacks occurred, which was the highest of any single city or district within the North Caucasus. The second highest city was Grozny, Chechnya with 24 attacks, while 14 occurred in Makhachkala, Dagestan. However, of Kabardino-Balkaria’s 13 total attacks, 6 took place in the city of Nalchik. An important finding for the time period of June 2007 through September 2007 is that Ingushetia had five districts with 5 or more attacks each, which represents a drastic increase from March through May 2007 and makes it virtually certain that the insurgency is spreading primarily towards Ingushetia. On both 23 September 2006 and 22 May 2007, 6 individual attacks occurred, tying for the single days with the most attacks.


 * **//Type://** The most prevalent type of attack used by the insurgents was shootings, with 139 of 257 total attacks, and 37 percent, or 52, of them occurring in Chechnya, while 33 percent, or 46, happened in Ingushetia. In second, with 69 individual attacks, were bombings, of which 46 percent occurred in Chechnya. The third highest type of attack was grenade launching, with Ingushetia accounting for 59 percent of the 27 total attacks. An important statistic, though, is between June 2007 and September 2007, 37 percent of the total grenade launchings took place in Ingushetia. The deadliest method of operations used by the insurgents is shooting down Russian security forces’ helicopters, occurring on two instances, one in September 2006 in North Ossetia killing 15 servicemen, while the other occurred in April 2007 in Chechnya killing 17 servicemen.


 * **//Time://** Within this period of 13 months, September 2007 had 19[[image:000-Attacks.JPG align="right"]] percent of the 257 total attacks, while March 2007 had the lowest percentage of attacks with 2 percent. As a measurement of the current status of insurgent activity, September 2006 had the second highest percentage of attacks with 12 percent, showing a 7 percent increase in September 2007. In addition, the days with, quantitatively, the greatest number of attacks were 23 September 2006, and 22 May 2007, registering 6 individual attacks. Due to the weather conditions with the North Caucasus region during the winter months between December 2006 and March 2007 insurgent attacks steadily decrease from 17 in December to only 5 in March. However, as the season changes from winter to spring between March and April, attacks began to increase until beginning of September 2007 when they increased from 30 attacks to 50 individual violent incidents.


 * **//Targets://** As a result of the 257 individual insurgent attacks, there were 549 casualties, which is approximately 2.12 casualties per attack. The Russian security forces suffered the highest casualty rate with 75 percent, or 411 of the total casualties. In Chechnya, 53 percent, or 214, security force servicemen suffered casualties, while Ingushetia accounted for 20 percent and Dagestan 19 percent. However, Civilian casualties are increasing significantly across the North Caucasus as well. After only experiencing 2 casualties in June 2007, Civilians suffered 55 percent, or 62, of the 111 total casualties between July and September 2007. In Ingushetia 36 percent of the total civilian casualties occurred, whereas Chechnya and Dagestan each experienced 30 percent. Insurgent suffered minimal casualties over the last thirteen months, with 37 total, and 48 percent, or 18, of them occurring in Chechnya. The highest casualty attacks inflicted by the insurgents were the shooting down of two Russian security forces’ helicopters, occurring on two instances, one in September 2006 in North Ossetia killing 15 servicemen, while the other occurred in April 2007 in Chechnya killing 17 servicemen.


 * **//Trends://** While at both a national and geographic level the violence over the last thirteen months centered in Chechnya, Ingushetia[[image:Ingushetia5districts.JPG align="right" caption="Map Of Ingushetia's Five Districts With 5 Or More Attacks"]], and Dagestan, with an increasing amount of attacks taking place in Ingushetia and Kabardino-Balkaria. In fact, between June through September 2007, Ingushetia had five districts with 5 or more attacks each, which represents a drastic increase from March through May 2007 and makes it virtually certain that the insurgency is spreading geographically towards Ingushetia. Additionally, in Kabardino-Balkaria a new hotspot is on the rise with 10 individual attacks of its own, where both the cities of Nalchik and Elbruss each had 4 attacks each. However, other specific patterns developed within the statistical data. Within the September 2006 through November 2006 period, the attacks primarily occurred in the internal regions of North Caucasus republics, specifically in the central areas of Ingushetia and Chechnya. During the December 2006 through February 2007, due to the climate change, the attacks centered geographically along the “M-29” main roadway that travels across the whole North Caucasian mountain range. Another pattern developed in this time period showing that the insurgents tended to attacks during the first half of the months, where 73 percent, or 31, of the individual attacks took place prior to the fifteenth of each month. However, in the time period between March and May 2007, a strong statistical trend shows that the insurgents conducted attacks 70 percent of the time after the fifteenth of each month, which was a total of 21 individual attacks out of 30.

Due to the use of news sources and internet archives for information regarding the occurrence of these insurgent attacks, it is necessary to consider a degree of error when reading these statistics.
 * Additional Comments:**

Source Reliability: 6 Analytic Confidence: 7

Authors: Christopher Anderson I Kathryn Connelly I Matthew Gurto I Robert Williams

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