Kabardino-Balkaria+Insurgency

=KBR Rebels Highly Likely To Recruit More And Expand Their Operations In The North Caucasus Region Over The Next Twelve Months Due To The Ineffectiveness Of Russian Forces=

Executive Summary:
The rebels use of the mountainous regions that make up most of the North Caucasus for training and recruiting young people have provided a safe haven and a place for growing. Due to the ineffectiveness of the Russian military and security forces to significantly damage their structure in these remote locations it is likely that the rebels in Kabardino-Balkaria will continue to recruit more and expand their operations in the North Caucasus region over the next twelve months.

Discussion:[[image:mountains.jpg align="right" caption="Mountains In North Caucasus" link="http://zhehar.tripod.com/images/kav2.jpg"]]
The rebels in KBR only represent a web of small groups, usually numbering no more than five people, while other may have over a hundred[|.] The Kabardino-Balkaria rebels had almost 10,000 members in 2005 that dispersed into various group sizes that operate in different locations throughout the country, each having a leader[|.] Approximately 500 to 800 of these members are operating in the mountains[|.] Due to this, it is extremely difficult for Russian military and security forces to do significant damage to the rebel’s structure and halt their operations throughout the country[|.]

Another reason why it is difficult to control rebel attacks is because they have created ties to other resistance groups across the region[|.] Each of these resistance groups may operate differently so a strategy that the Russian forces implement against one group, may not work against another[|.] Also, the rebels often receive support from different socioeconomic groups and individuals in the local government and security services which help them execute operations in the region[|.] The insurgents can also work together in the region because the Islamic ideology of the insurgency helps the rebels to overcome the ethnic differences that define the region[|.]

The Russian forces have been unable to access the mountainous regions that the rebels have been training and recruiting to due to inadequate training[|.] The militants have a network of mountain camps and guerilla bases in countries in the North Caucasus including Dagestan, Ingushetia, and Kabardino-Balkaria[|.] The mountains give the rebels the element of surprise during many of their attacks, giving the Russian forces little time to react appropriately[|.] The extensiveness of the mountainous regions has allowed for a wider scope of operations for anti-Russian militants[|.] The emergence of the rebel's wider scope of operations threatens to stretch Russian resources thin and create a lot of anti-Russian resistance in the North Caucasus[|.] In addition to their camps in the mountains, these groups have also been able to create a network of villages and settlements throughout the region[|.] Recruitment of young people for the future is also a primary use of these facilities in the mountains[|.] Recently, the Russian authorities have concentrated on combating the propaganda campaign started by the rebels. They hope this will both slow down the amount of people joining the rebels and reduce the will to fight[|.]

Additional Comments:
None.

Source Reliability: 9 Analytic Confidence: 8

Matthew Gurto

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