Ingushetia+-+Key+Findings

=Widespread Violence and Ineffective Governing Likely To Destabilize Ingushetia Over Next 12 Months=

Executive Summary:
Ingushetia experienced the largest growth of violence of any republic in the North Caucasus over the previous 12 months. Counterterrorism efforts undertaken by Ramzan Kadyrov in the republic of Chechnya pushed the center of violence west to Ingushetia, while simultaneously increasing the number of violent actors in the republic and creating numerous socio-economic problems. The situation in Ingushetia is likely to continue to deteriorate and experience increases in violence over the next 12 months due to a growing insurgency fueled by ineffective counterterrorism techniques, inabilities by the government to combat socio-economic issues, and growing conflicts across border and ethnic lines.

Severity and Effectiveness: As a result of the geographic shift westward of the North Caucasus insurgency Ingushetia saw significant increases in both the number of attacks and amount of casualties within the time period of September 2006 and September 2007. During the thirteen months, Ingushetia had 86 total attacks, which was 33 percent of the total attacks in the North Caucasian region. Additionally, Ingushetia suffered 129 casualties, which equates to 1.5 casualties per individual attack. The primary targets were Russian security forces suffering 64 percent, or 83, of the total casualties, however, Ingushetia accounted for 36 percent of the total civilian casualties in the North Caucasus. While the most prolific type of attack used by the insurgents in Ingushetia were shootings, representing 53 percent of the total attacks, and second was bombings with 18 percent. However, between June 2007 and September 2007, grenade launchings increased by 62 percent, which shows sophistication in insurgent tactics. Although Ingushetia averaged 6.6 attacks per month, September 2007 had the highest number of attacks with 24. In addition, the city of [|Nazran] registered the highest frequency of attacks across the entire North Caucasus with 35 total attacks, while the Sunzhensky district of Ingushetia had 23.
 * Insurgency - The republic of Ingushetia is currently the center of violence in the North Caucasus, with all the characteristics of a republic at war. The small republic is plagued daily with reports of shootings, murders, ambushes, and demonstrations. The number of attacks and violent acts in Insughetia is likely to continue to rise, due to an expanding group of violent actors in the region, and inabilities by the government and security forces to combat the situation.
 * Ethnic and Border Conflicts - Part of the current surge in violent attacks in Ingushetia is attributed to conflicts between citizens of North Ossetia and Ingushetia. Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov sees the deteriorating situation in Ingushetia as an opportunity to expand his realm of power by bringing Ingushetia under his control. Ingushetia is likely to continue destabilization and maintain a growth in violence due to unresolved ethnic and border conflicts with North Ossetia. Also, any attempt by Ramzan Kadyrov's to unify Ingushetia and Chechnya is likely to further entice more non-radical citizens to join the insurgency due to a strong oppostion by Ingush citizens towards unifying the two republics.

Kremlin Ability To Control- The republic of Ingushetia is full of tension between Ingush citizens, and a Kremlin-controlled government which they view as both illegitimate and ineffective. Vladimir Putin implanted the current Ingush President, Murat Zyazikov, whose approval rating is at an all time low due to his inability to effectively govern the republic. The Ingush government is likely to remain ineffective over the next 12 months, due to their inability to deal with rising violence, widespread disapproval by Ingush citizens, and dwindling support from Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian government.

Russian Capabilities and Effectiveness - In response to an increasingly deteriorating situation in Ingushetia, Vladimir Putin is instituting new efforts to bring security to the embattled republic. The current counter-insurgency strategy in Ingushetia is likely to remain ineffective due to the use of tactics which recruit more militants,a weak support for security forces within the republic, and a failure to remedy socio-economic problems by the government. Any future attempt to mirror the counterterrorism techniques of Chechnya by using overpowering military force will likely only move the center of violence to other regions, and further prolong the conflict.

Additional Comments:
None.

Source Reliability: 7 Analytic Confidence: 7

Robert A. Williams

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