Kabardino-Balkaria+-+Political

=Arsen Kanokov Highly Likely To Continue To Lose Support Over The Next Twelve Months Due To Economic And Security Instability In Kabardino-Balkaria=

The Kabardino-Balkaria (KBR) has been plagued with economic and security instability due mostly to the insurgency that has now spread into the republic, which has caused instability in the country. It is likely that Arsen Kanokov will continue to lose support over the next twelve months due to the instability of the economy and diminishing security in the republic.
 * Executive Summary:**

While in office, Arsen Kanokov has consistently explained the growth of radicalism by pointing out the weakened state of the republic's economy[|.] He has also strongly criticized the policies implemented by the previous government, ran by the former but now deceased president Valery Kokov[|.] Kanokov has also taken steps to oust other members involved in the previous administration on the basis that they were partly responsible for destabilizing the republic[|.]
 * Discussion:[[image:arsen.jpg width="192" height="244" align="right" caption="Arsen Kanokov" link="http://www.ajanskafkas.com/cache/e8212c297fce2853a32950b50fe6fd5d.jpg"]]**

However, it is transparent that socio-economic factors are not solely to blame for this trend[|.] Support for Kanokov has diminished because the populace is unsatisfied with his strategies against battling the insurgency[|.] Due to the fact that social and economic conditions are poor, insurgent activities will continue to affect the stability of the region[|.]

Kanokov has recently stated that his recent campaign against religious extremism was counterproductive[|.] The closing of almost all mosques by republic officials during the campaign was a "mistake” that did more harm than good[|.] Even though he has reopened these mosques now, more uprisings and fighting has been the result[|.]

The Russian authorities have accepted the militants' premise that the conflict with Moscow and the insurgents is only religious in nature when in fact this is not the case[|.] It first began as an ethnic problem in Chechnya and remains a largely economic and social issue for most people[|.] Kanokov has said, “The population's low income and unemployment create the soil for religious extremists and other destructive forces to conduct an ideological war against us[|.]” The conflict now has much more of a resonance with other groups in the North Caucasus due to the increasingly strong religious undertone. This will make the situation for the Russian police and military forces more complicated[|.]

Rather than focusing on improving the local economy and stopping corruption, local governments ­have become obsessed with the idea of religious extremism[|.] This causes more problems because it has been used to increase recruiting done by the militants in the mountanious regions of the North Caucasus[|.] Unless polices are implemented by the current government that increase socioeconomic stability the militants will continue to attack and President Kanokov will lose more support from the populace[|.] Svante Cornell, an expert on the North Caucasus region at Sweden's Uppsala University said,"...you've seen the spread of radical Islamic groupings from Chechnya out into the rest of the North Caucasus very much because of the counterproductive policies followed by the Russian leadership and their utter inability to deal with the socioeconomic problems in the region[|.]"

None.
 * Additional Comments:**

Source Reliability: 9 Analytic Confidence: 8

Matthew Gurto

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