Ingushetia+-+Political

=Ingush Government Likely To Remain Ineffective And Unable To Combat Rising Violence Over Next 12 Months=

Executive Summary:
The republic of Ingushetia is full of tension between Ingush citizens, and a government which they view as both illegitimate and ineffective. The Ingush government is likely to remain ineffective over the next six months, due to their inability to deal with rising violence, widespread disapproval by Ingush citizens, and dwindling support from Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian government.

Discussion:[[image:http://www.itar-tass.com/img/news_img_11888037_0006.jpg align="right" caption="Ingush President Murat Zyazikov" link="http://www.itar-tass.com/img/news_img_11888037_0006.jpg"]]
In 2002, former Ingush president and Putin-critic Ruslan Aushev resigned his post of President of Ingushetia, and Russian Federation Council member[|.] His successor, former KGB and FSB member Murat Zyazikov, took over the presidency with extensive support from Vladimir Putin in a Kremlin-manipulated 2002 election[|.] The Kremlin’s direct involvement in the installation of loyal local-elites, such as Zyazikov, mirrors past Russian Imperial and Soviet strategies of maintaining control over the North Caucasus[|.] These previous strategies have historically been ineffective, and subsequently intensified tensions, produced new conflicts, and resulted in power shifts within the system rather than changing the system itself[|.]

Under Zyazikov, Ingushetia’s economy has marginally improved, but the republic currently holds the lowest income per-capita in the Russian Federation and a 36% unemployment rate[|.] The administration also currently shows neither the wherewithal to curtail the rising violence nor the ability to deal with unresolved ethnic problems[|.] The Zyazikov administration's inability to secure the return of ethnic Ingush people to their homes in the Pirgorodny District of North Ossetia also fuels the distrust and disdain for the Ingush government[|.]This Ingush government's ineffectiveness is one of the driving forces behind the current upsurge of violence in the republic. While Putin openly praises the work of Zyazikov in the media, sources within the Kremlin believe Putin’s patience is wearing thin, and Putin may move to remove Zyazikov, coerce him to resign, or even unite Ingushetia and Chechnya as one republic[|.] Zyazikov recently categorically denied the possibility that he would tender his resignation, despite almost unanimous disapproval and numerous attempts on his life[|.]In an example of Putin's recent dwindling support for Zyazikov, he left the Ingush President off his offical list of party leaders within the republic[|.]

In the eyes of the people of Ingushetia, President Zyazikov did not enter into office through a democratic process, and therefore lacks local legitimacy[|.] Numerous recent protests and increasingly severe acts of violence in Ingushetia highlight a socio-political tension that is unrivaled in the North Caucasus[|.] Amidst this widespread unpopularity, Zyazikov’s administration insists that those who oppose them are part of an undifferentiated Islamist radicalism, which by doing so turns even those Muslims loyal to the Russian state against the Ingush government [|.]

Additional Comments:
None.

Source Reliability: 7 Analytic Confidence: 7

Robert A. Williams

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