Ingushetia+-+Insurgency

=Number Of Insurgents Likely To Grow Within Ingushetia; Increased Low Level Attacks Likely=

Executive Summary:
The republic of Ingushetia is currently the center of violence in the North Caucasus, with all the characteristics of a republic at war. The small republic is plagued daily with reports of shootings, murders, ambushes, and demonstrations. The number of attacks and violent acts in Ingushetia is likely to continue to rise, due to a growing group of violent actors in the region, and inabilities by the government and security forces to combat the situation.

Discussion:
From September 2006 to September 2007, Ingushetia witnessed 86 violent attacks, or 33 percent of all attacks in the North Caucasus over that time period. The only republic to top Ingushetia's percentage of attacks was Chechnya, with 40 percent of the overall attacks occuring in the embattled republic. Ingushetia experienced a significant increase in the number of attacks from September 2006 to September 2007, with the total number of violent acts growing from 10 to 24, or 140 percent. The majority of the attacks from July to September 2007 were low level shootings, constituting for 60 percent of attacks. The average number of casualties per violent incident in Ingushetia from September 2006 to September 2007 of 2.13 individuals shows a trend in low level violence resulting in a small number of casualties. Also, the number of attacks occurring in Ingushetia in September of 2007 nearly doubled the number of attacks in Chechnya, which illustrates a shift of the center of violence.

While the Ingush government attributes the current high level of violence solely to a small group of Arab-financed Islamic radicals, it is highly unlikely that a single group is responsible for all the attacks in the republic[|.] Those likely accountable for the current upsurge in violence include a combination of Islamic militants, separatists/nationalists, and North Ossetian citizens[|.] No evidence currently exists that links the three violent groups to one another, but any future strategic partnership would likely escalate the violence in Ingushetia to a more severe level[|.] Given the sustained crisis, and an almost universal dissatisfaction with the current political and economic state of Ingushetia, all residents have multiple reasons to join the resistance[|.]

In July, Dokka Umarov, the leader of the Chechen and North Caucasian rebels named a militant of Ingush ethnicity, Akhmed “Magas” Yevloev, as the top military commander of the Caucasian insurgency[|.] Since Magas’ appointment, the situation in Ingushetia is only worsening and violent attacks against Russian and Ingush security forces occur daily[|.] Separatists, Nationalists, and Zyazikov opponents increasingly target ethnic Russian citizens in the republic in hopes of forcing them out, and ruining government plans to settle more Russians in the North Caucasus[|.] Islamic militants issued a statement, claiming they do not specifically target non-muslims, but are concerned more with disrupting the government and military operations within Ingushetia[|.] Violent attacks in 2007 are geographically spread throughout the republic, but frequent violence in the Prigorodny district likely stems from a 15-year long unsolved land dispute between Ingushetia and North Ossetia that is appearing to erupt[|.] Violence specifically targeting young Muslims and mosques is likely the work of Russian security forces, who then publicly describe the attacks as violence between rival Islamic factions[|.]

Even official violence statistics, which often downplay the numbers, indicated violent attacks doubled from 2005 to 2006 in Ingushetia[|.] Zyazikov saw violence rising again in 2007, which logically explains Zyazikov's call for security forces to cease documentation of terrorist attacks. media type="youtube" key="nKse3y29718" height="355" width="425"

Additional Comments:
None.

Source Reliability: 6 Analytic Confidence: 7

Robert A. Williams

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