Mar+07+-+May+07

=Majority Of Activity Takes Place In Chechnya And Dagestan, With High Frequencies In Shootings And Security Forces Casualties; Attacks Increase Outside Capital Cities=

Summary:
Through the quantitative and geographic analysis of the insurgent attacks during the months of March, April, and May 2007, it is virtually certain that a majority of the attacks took place in Chechnya and Dagestan. However, due to the climate change, attacks increased significantly from March through May, rising from 5 to 16 individual attacks. The improved climate conditions allowed the insurgents to broaden the scope of their operations by expanding outside of the capital cities, specifically in Chechnya where most of the attacks occurred in the southern areas of the Republic. In addition, the most prolific type of attack used by the insurgents were shootings, accounting for 70 percent of the 30 total attacks, targeting primarily Russian security forces, which suffered 74 casualties. Though, an important fact is that on 27 April 2007, insurgents shot down a second helicopter again killing seventeen Russian soldiers.


 * **//Number://** The Republic with the highest number of insurgent attacks was Chechnya where 50 percent of the 30 total occurred; while Ingushetia followed with 40 percent. However, the Shatoi District in Chechnya had 5 separate attacks, whereas the Dagestani city of Makhachkala and District of Khasavyurt each totaled 3 individual attacks. A significant finding for this time period is that the number of attacks decreased in the capital cities of the Republics. For example, in Chechnya, a majority of the attacks, or 11 of the 15 total, occurred in the southern areas of the republic like the Shatoi and Vedeno Districts. In addition, the single day with the most attacks was 22 May 2007, where 6 individual attacks took place, three in both Chechnya and Dagestan.


 * **//Type://** The most prevalent type of attack used by the insurgents was shootings, which accounted for 70 percent, or 21, of the 30 total attacks. In Dagestan, 83 percent, or 10, of its 12 total attacks were shootings, while Ingushetia had two total attacks, which both were shootings. The second type of attack with the highest frequency was bombings making up 26 percent, or 8, of the total attacks. In Chechnya, 5 separate bombing attacks occurred, whereas in Kabardino-Balkaria’s only attack was a bombing. Lastly, grenade launching was the third highest and deadliest, with one single occurrence on 27 April 2007 in Chechnya’s Shatoi District where insurgents shot down a helicopter killing seventeen Russian soldiers.


 * **//Time://** Within this period of three months, 53 percent, or 16, of the 30 total attacks occurred in May, which was an increase from 9 attacks in April, and 5 in March. While the single day with the most attacks was 22 May 2007, where 6 individual attacks took place, three in both Chechnya and Dagestan.


 * **//Targets://** The Russian security forces suffered the highest casualty rate with 77 percent of the total targeted casualties, losing 74 servicemen. In Chechnya alone, 79 percent, or 59, of the 74 total security forces casualties occurred. The next highest were insurgents at 7 percent, or 12 casualties, and 9 civilians were either wounded or killed, with 7 occurring in Dagestan. Additionally, Chechnya had 9 of the 12 total insurgent casualties. However, the deadliest single attack occurred on 27 April 2007 in Chechnya’s Shatoi District where insurgents shot down a helicopter killing seventeen Russian soldiers.


 * **//Trends://** While at both a national and geographic level the violence centers in the Republics of Chechnya and Dagestan, which contained 90 percent of the 30 total attacks, meaning that only three other attacks[[image:chechnyapattern.JPG width="442" height="263" align="right" caption="Cluster: Shatoi and Vedeno Districts of Chechnya"]] occurred in the rest of the entire North Caucasus region. A significant finding for this time period is that the number of attacks decreased from the last three months in the capital cities of the Republics. For example, in Chechnya, a majority of the attacks, or 11 of the 15 total, occurred in the southern areas of the republic like the Shatoi and Vedeno Districts. This represents a geographic cluster, as these regions are mountainous and matches the insurgent strategy enacted during this time period. Also in Chechnya, it is important to note that the insurgents suffered the highest number of casualties, 9, during these three months than any other Republic has since September 2006. Another strong statistical trend developed where the insurgents conducted attack 70 percent of the time after the fifteenth of each month, which was a total of 21 individual attacks out of 30.

**Additional Comments:**
Due to the use of news sources and internet archives for information regarding the occurrence of these insurgent attacks, it is necessary to consider a degree of error when reading these statistics.

Source Reliability: 6 Analytic Confidence: 7

//For an interactive description of each attack please click on the first map.//

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