Sep+06-Nov+06

=Majority Of Activity Takes Place In Chechnya And Ingushetia, With High Frequencies In Shootings And Security Forces Casualties=

Summary:
Through the quantitative and geographic analysis of the insurgent attacks during the months of September, October, and November 2006, is virtually certain that a majority of the activity took place in Chechnya and Ingushetia. While shootings were the most prolific type of attack used by the insurgents, bombings were also a significant method of operations. In addition, the primary targets of the insurgents were Russian security force servicemen, making up 88 percent of the 97 total casualties.


 * **//Number://** The Republic with the highest number of insurgent attacks was Chechnya where 54 percent of the 67 total occurred; while Ingushetia followed with 20 percent, and Dagestan with 9 percent. However, Nazran, Ingushetia totaled 10 individual attacks, and Grozny, Chechnya had 7. The single day with the most attacks was 23 September 2006, with 6 separate attacks, four in Chechnya, and one in both Dagestan and Kabardino-Balkaria.


 * **//Type://** The most prevalent type of attack used by the insurgents was shootings, with 50 percent, or 15, of them occurring in Chechnya and 24 percent, or 8, in Ingushetia. Though, of the 6 attacks in Dagestan, 5 were shootings. The second type of attack with the highest frequency was bombings, with 54 percent, or 13, taking place in Chechnya, while 33 percent, or 8, occurred in Ingushetia. Despite the high frequencies of bombings in Chechnya and Ingushetia, insurgents in North Ossetia conducted two bombing attacks killing 19 Russian security forces servicemen. Lastly, grenade launching was the third highest, with 6 occurrences, 3 in both Chechnya and Ingushetia.


 * **//Time://** Within this period of three months, 47 percent, or 32, of the 67 total attacks occurred in September, while decreasing significantly in October and November with 18 and 17 individual attacks respectively. While 23 September 2006 had the highest amount of individual attacks with 6 separate attacks, four in Chechnya, and one in both Dagestan and Kabardino-Balkaria.


 * **//Targets://** The Russian security forces suffered the highest casualty rate with 88 percent of the total targeted casualties, losing 86 servicemen. T[[image:sep06nov06targets.JPG align="right" link="Chechnya"]]he next highest were civilians at 19 percent, or 19 casualties, and 11 insurgents were either wounded or killed. Although the security forces had 46 individual casualties out of 36 attacks in Chechnya, two insurgent attacks in North Ossetia caused 19 casualties, with 15 of the 19 killed when the insurgents shot down a helicopter on 11 September 2006. Additionally, of the 7 casualties in Dagestan, 5 were servicemen, while in Ingushetia, 13 of the 23 casualties were servicemen as well. While the highest number of insurgent and civilian casualties took place in Chechnya, with 7 and 11 respectively.


 * **//Trends://** Through the analysis of the individual cities, Nazran, Ingushetia had 10 individual attacks, while 7 took place in Grozny, Chechnya. While at both a national and geographic level, the attacks center in Chechnya, which had 36 attacks, and at a lower degree in Ingushetia, which had 20 attacks. In addition, the attacks primarily occurred in the internal regions of North Caucasian mountain range, specifically in the central areas of Ingushetia and Chechnya.

**Additional Comments:**
Due to the use of news sources and internet archives for information regarding the occurrence of these insurgent attacks, it is necessary to consider a degree of error when reading these statistics.

Source Reliability: 6 Analytic Confidence: 7

//For an interactive description of each attack please click on the first map.//

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