Geographical+Comparison

= = =**Steady, Low Level Insurgent Attacks Likely To Continue Spreading Externally From Chechnya Toward Ingushetia, Dagestan And Kabardino-Balkaria Over The Next Twelve Months**=

**Summary:**
The number of attacks in the North Caucasus in September and October 2007 was nearly double the attacks from September and October 2006, with 91 and 50 individual attacks respectively, which was an increase of 41 attacks. Over the two, two month time periods, Chechnya experienced the same amount of attacks in both time periods, while Ingushetia, Dagestan and Kabardino-Balkaria all increased by 7 or more individual attacks. The average number of casualties per violent incident in the North Caucasus in September and October 2006 was 1.62 casualties per attack, it increased to 1.88 casualties during September and October 2007. Thus, through the comparison of September and October 2006 with 2007 the recent surge of insurgent activity in the republic of Kabardino-Balkaria coupled with rising violence in Ingushetia and Dagestan likely points to the geographic shift of violence externally from Chechnya and now centering in Ingushetia.


 * **//Number://** The number of attacks in the North Caucasus in September and October 2007 was nearly double the attacks from September and October 2006, with 91 and 50 individual attacks respectively, which was an increase of 41 attacks. In Chechnya, 24 attacks occurred in both two month time periods, showing a consistent rate of violence. However, Ingushetia experienced a significant increase with 23 more attacks in September and October 2007, increasing from 15 to 38 individual attacks. While Dagestan increased by 11 attacks and Kabardino-Balkaria by 7. The city or district with the largest increase in the amount of attacks was Nazran, Ingushetia with 6 attacks during September and October 2006, while in 2007, 26 attacks occurred, increasing by 20 individual attacks. An important finding for these two, two month time periods is that while Chechnya had 48 percent of the total attacks in 2006, it decreased to 26 percent of the total in 2007. The highest percentage of attacks in September and October 2007 took place in Ingushetia, which had 41 percent of the 91 total attacks in 2007, making it virtually certain that the center of violence shifted from Chechnya in 2006 to Ingushetia in 2007. Additionally, in September 2006 there were 32 attacks, while 50 occurred in September 2007 showing an increase of 18 attacks. Though, October 2006 experienced only 18 attacks, October 2007 was significantly higher with 41 attacks.


 * **//Type://** The most prevalent type of attack used by the insurgents was[[image:groznynazran.JPG width="418" height="294" align="right" caption="Map Of Hotspot Trends In Nazran And Grozny"]] shootings, with Ingushetia increasing its frequency by 21 individual shootings, and Chechnya by 7. This shows the use of low-level methods of operation, as bombings in both Ingushetia and Chechnya decreased from the two month time periods of September and October 2006 and 2007. Despite this decrease, bombings in Dagestan and Kabardino-Balkaria increased in 2007 by 5 individual attacks from 2006. Also, it is important to note that while the number of grenade launchings remained the same or decreased in Chechnya, Dagestan, and Kabardino-Balkaria, they increased by 4 attacks in Ingushetia. The deadliest method of operations used by the insurgents within these two time periods occurred in September 2006, where insurgents shot down a Russian security forces helicopter, killing 15 servicemen. However, in October 2007, the method used that inflicted the most casualties was an ambush, causing 14 casualties, showing a change toward low-level activity.


 * **//Time://** Within the two, two month time periods in 2006 and 2007, September 2007 had the highest amount of attacks with 50, and October 2007 had the second highest with 41. The lowest occurred in October 2006, experiencing only 18 individual attacks. As a measurement of the current status of insurgent activity compared with the previous year’s activity, an increase of 41 total attacks from 2006 to 2007 occurred, increasing from 50 to 91. In addition, the days with, quantitatively, the greatest numbers of attacks were 23 September 2006, registering 6 attacks, while 10 September 2007 and 18 September 2007 both had 5 attacks.


 * **//Targets://** As a result, of the 50 individual insurgent attacks in September and October 2006, there were 81 casualties, which is approximately 1.62 casualties per attack. However, during September and October 2007, 91 individual attacks occurred, causing 171 casualties, which is approximately 1.88 casualties per attack. In the entire North Caucasus region during September and October 2006, Russian and republic security forces suffered a total of 54 casualties, with 35 percent of them occurring in Chechnya. However, a year later in September and October 2007, Chechnya accounted for 52 percent, or an increase of 38 security force casualties. In addition, servicemen in Ingushetia suffered an increase in casualties with 9 in 2006 and 39 in the 2007 time period, which is an increase of 30 total casualties. A significant finding for the comparison of the two, two month time periods is that, although civilian casualties increased slightly in Chechnya and Ingushetia, Dagestan saw a significant increase from having no civilian casualties in 2006 to 24 in 2007. This is due in part to the increased bombings in the civilian areas of Dagestan. Insurgents during both time periods suffered minimal casualties, with Ingushetia showing an increase from 2 casualties in 2006 to 12 in 2007.


 * **//Trends://** While at both a national and geographic level the center of violence within the two, two month time periods shifted from Chechnya in 2006 to Ingushetia in 2007, and to a lesser degree Dagestan and Kabardino-Balkaria. In fact, Chechnya experienced the same amount of attacks in both time periods, while Ingushetia, Dagestan and Kabardino-Balkaria all increased by 7 or more individual attacks. Thus, it is virtually certain that insurgent activity remains consistent in Chechnya, while the violence is continuing to spread externally from Chechnya to the rest of the North Caucasus region. Also, geographically in 2007, the attacks in Chechnya and Dagestan occurred without uniformity, while in Ingushetia, all of the attacks took place in the northern districts of the republic. In Kabardino-Balkaria, a hotspot is continuing to develop with an increase of 9 total attacks in 2007 from only 2 in 2006. In addition, while Grozny, Chechnya remains an active target, another major hotspot is growing in Nazran, Ingushetia, which saw an increase from 6 to 26 total attacks within these two, two month time periods. Also, a pattern developed in Dagestan that shows a majority of the attacks occurred along the “M-29” North Caucasus highway.

**Additional Comments:**
It is important to note that when 2006 and 2007 appear in the above analysis, it is referring to the two, two-month time periods of September and October of 2006 and 2007. Also, due to the use of news sources and internet archives for information regarding the occurrence of these insurgent attacks, it is necessary to consider a degree of error when reading these statistics.

Source Reliability: 6 Analytic Confidence: 7

//For an interactive description of each attack please click on the first map.//

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