Jun+07+-+Sep+07

=Majority Of Activity Takes Place In Ingushetia and Chechnya, With High Frequencies In Shootings And Security Forces Casualties; Attacks Shifting Westward Towards Ingushetia And Kabardino-Balkaria=

**Summary:**
Through the quantitative and geographic analysis of the insurgent attacks during the months of June, July, August, and September 2007, it is certain that a majority of the activity took place in Ingushetia and Chechnya. The insurgency experienced a geographic change, shifting westward towards Ingushetia and Kabardino-Balkaria. However, despite the shift, Chechnya had an increase in attacks and remains significantly active in the insurgency. While the most prolific type of attack used by the insurgents were shootings, accounts for 53 percent, or 64, of the 119 total attacks, targeting primarily Russian security forces, which suffered 179 casualties.


 * **//Number://** The Republic with the highest number of insurgent attacks was Ingushetia where 42 percent, or 51, of the 119 total occurred; while Chechnya followed with 33 percent, or 40 separate attacks. In Nazran, Ingushetia totaled 18 individual attacks, and Grozny, Chechnya had 12, however, both Nalchik and Elbruss of Kabardino-Balkaria had 4 attacks apiece. An important finding for this time period is that Ingushetia had five districts with 5 or more attacks each, which represents a drastic increase from March through May 2007 and makes it virtually certain that the insurgency is spreading primarily towards Ingushetia. Overall, though, the single day with the most attacks was 10 September 2007, 2 individual attacks in both Chechnya and Ingushetia, and one in Dagestan.


 * **//Type://** The most prevalent type of attack used by the insurgents was shootings, which accounted for 53 percent, or 64, of the 119 total attacks. In Ingushetia, 46 percent, or 30, of its 51 total attacks were shootings, while Chechnya had 21 shooting attacks. The second type of attack with the highest frequency was bombings making up 21 percent, or 26, of the total attacks. Although Chechnya had 10 individual bombing attacks, 60 percent, or 6, of Kabardino-Balkaria’s 10 total attacks were bombings. In third was grenade launching, with 71 percent, or 10, of the 14 total occurrences taking place in Ingushetia. However, the highest casualty attack came on 18 July 2007 when insurgents activated a bomb in Kizilyurt, Dagestan, killing four and wounding eight Russian security forces servicemen.


 * **//Time://** Within this period of four months, 42 percent, or 50, of the 119 total attacks occurred in September, 25 percent, or 30, in August, and decreased to 26 and 13 individual attacks in July and June respectively. While, the single day with the most attacks was 10 September 2007, 2 individual attacks in both Chechnya and Ingushetia, and one in Dagestan.


 * **//Targets://** The Russian security forces suffered the highest casualty rate with 71 percent of the total targeted casualties, losing 179 servicemen. Additionally, in Chechnya, 78 percent, or 71, of its 90 total casualties were servicemen, and this accounted for 39 percent of the overall casualties of the servicemen. The next highest were civilians at 25 percent, or 64 casualties, and 9 insurgents were either wounded or killed. In Ingushetia, 27 civilians suffered casualties which make [[image:Ingushetia5districts.JPG align="right" caption="Map Of Ingushetia's Five Districts With 5 Or More Attacks"]]up 42 percent of the total civilian casualty rate. However, the highest casualty attack came on 18 July 2007 when insurgents activated a bomb in Kizilyurt, Dagestan, killing four and wounding eight Russian security forces servicemen.


 * **//Trends://** While at both a national and geographic level the violence centers in the Republics of Ingushetia and Chechnya, accounting for 76 percent of the total attacks. An important finding, though, for this time period is that Ingushetia had five districts with 5 or more attacks each, which represents a drastic increase from March through May 2007 and makes it virtually certain that the insurgency is spreading geographically towards Ingushetia. In addition, Chechnya remains a hotspot for violence with three districts with 7 or more attacks in each district. However, a new hotspot is on the rise in Kabardino-Balkaria with 10 individual attacks of its own, where both the cities of Nalchik and Elbruss each had 4 apiece. While Dagestan remained active with an increase to 17 individual attacks over the last three month period, its casualty rate decreased, pointing again to a westward shift in the Insurgency.

**Additional Comments:**
This map includes four months of data instead of three. In addition, due to the use of news sources and internet archives for information regarding the occurrence of these insurgent attacks, it is necessary to consider a degree of error when reading these statistics.

Source Reliability: 6 Analytic Confidence: 7

//For an interactive description of each attack please click on the first map.//

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