Dec+06+-+Feb+07

=Majority Of Activity Takes Place In Dagestan, Ingushetia, and Chechnya, With High Frequencies In Shootings And Security Forces Casualties; Attacks Center Along “M-29” Roadway Across North Caucasus Region=

**Summary:**
Through the quantitative and geographic analysis of the insurgent attacks during the months of December 2006, and January and February 2007, it is clear that a majority of the activity took place in Dagestan, Ingushetia, and Chechnya. However, due to the change in climate during this three month time period, the attacks centered geographically along the “M-29” main roadway causing very few attacks to occur in the northern or southern regions of each Republic. While the most prolific type of attack used by the insurgents were shootings, accounting for 57 percent of the 42 total attacks, targeting primarily Russian security forces, which suffered 63 casualties.


 * **//Number://** The Republic with the highest number of insurgent attacks was Dagestan where 35 percent of the 42 total occurred; while Ingushetia followed with 30 percent and Chechnya with 28 percent. However, Nazran, Ingushetia totaled 10 individual attacks, and Makhachkala, Dagestan had 9. A significant finding for this time period is that the Republic of Chechnya lacks a city with more than 2 separate attacks, representing not only a decrease in activity from the last three month period, but also the decentralization of attacks on one specific city. Overall, the single day with the most attacks was 11 December 2006, with 3 individual attacks in 3 different Republics, including Chechnya, Dagestan, and Ingushetia.


 * **//Type://** The most prevalent type of attack used by the insurgents was shootings, which accounted for 57 percent, or 24, of the 42 total attacks. In Dagestan, 60 percent, or 9, of its 15 total attacks were shootings, while Chechnya had 7, and Ingushetia had 6. The second type of attack with the highest frequency was bombings making up 26 percent, or 11, of the total attacks. Both Chechnya and Dagestan had 4 bombings, and Ingushetia had 3. Lastly, grenade launching was the third highest, with 5 occurrences, 3 in Ingushetia and 2 in Dagestan. However, the deadliest single attack came on 23 February 2007 in the Gudermes District of Chechnya where 5 servicemen died in a bombing.


 * **//Time://** Within this period of three months, 40 percent, or 17, of the 42 total attacks occurred in December, in January down slightly[[image:dec06feb07attacksbymonth1.JPG align="right"]] to 38 percent, or 16, and significantly decreasing to 9 separate attacks in February. While 11 December 2006 had the highest amount of individual attacks with 3, one occurring in Chechnya, Dagestan, and Ingushetia.


 * **//Targets://** The Russian security forces suffered the highest casualty rate with 74 percent of the total targeted casualties, losing 63 servicemen. The next highest were civilians at 21 percent, or 18 casualties, and 4 insurgents were either wounded or killed. Additionally, in Chechnya, 95 percent, or 38, of the casualties were servicemen, while in Dagestan of its 33 total casualties 66 percent, or 22, were servicemen. A significant statistic for this three month period is Dagestan had 55 percent, or 10, of the total 18 civilian casualties. However, the deadliest single attack came on 23 February 2007 in the Gudermes District of Chechnya where 5 servicemen died in a bombing.


 * **//Trends://** While at both a national and geographic level the violence centers in the Republics of Dagestan, Ingushetia, and Chechnya, accounting for 95 percent of the total attacks. However, due to the change in climate during this three month time period, the attacks center geographically along the “M-29” main roadway that travels across the whole North Caucasian mountain range. As a result, very few attacks occurred in the northern or southern regions of each Republic. In addition a pattern developed within the data showing that the insurgents tended to attacks during the first half of the months, where 73 percent, or 31, of the individual attacks took place prior to the fifteenth of each month. An interesting fact to note is also that the deadliest single attack came on 23 February 2007 in the Gudermes District of Chechnya where 5 servicemen died in a bombing. This is important because on 23 February 1944 the Soviet Union began deporting the Chechen citizens from Chechnya to different settlements and labor camps across Russia.

**Additional Comments:**
Due to the use of news sources and internet archives for information regarding the occurrence of these insurgent attacks, it is necessary to consider a degree of error when reading these statistics.

Source Reliability: 6 Analytic Confidence: 7

//For an interactive description of each attack please click on the map.//

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