Ingushetia+-+Demographic

=Land Disputes And Ethnic Conflicts Likely To Further Destabilization Of Ingushetia=

Executive Summary:
Conflicts between citizens of North Ossetia and Ingushetia contribute to the current violent environment within Ingushetia and the Ossetian-Ingush border. Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov sees the deteriorating situation in Ingushetia as an opportunity to expand his realm of power by bringing Ingushetia under his control. Ingushetia is likely to continue destabilization and maintain a growth in violence due to unresolved ethnic and border conflicts with North Ossetia. Also, any attempt by Ramzan Kadyrov's to unify Ingushetia and Chechnya is likely to further entice more non-radical citizens to join the insurgency due to a strong opposition by Inugsh citizens towards the unification of the two republics.

Discussion:
The current conflict between Ingushetia and North Ossetian citizens finds its roots in the Ossetian-Ingush conflict of 1992[|.] After Ingushetia became a separate republic in 1992, a border dispute occurred over the district of Prigorodny, between the primarily Muslim Ingushetia and the primarily Christian North Ossetia[|.] The conflict resulted in the mass deportation of thousands of ethnic Ingush citizens out of North Ossetia, and over 600 deaths during the summer and fall of 1992[|.] Human rights groups have accused North Ossetian security forces of committing ethnic cleansing of Ingush citizens, and the Ossetian government still limits the return of Ingush people back to Prigorodny[|.]

Russian Presidents Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin failed to address the ethnic and border issues between North Ossetia and Ingushetia, thereby leaving an uneasy tension between the two ethnic groups[|.] While Putin made an attempt for peace in a 2002 cooperation agreement, the Beslan hostage crisis of 2004 worsened Ossetian-Ingush relations[|.] The attack on Beslan, perpetrated by Islamic militants, resulted in over 300 deaths and 700 wounded inside a school in Beslan, North Ossetia[|.] The former leader of the Chechen insurgency, Shamil Basayev, took responsibility for the attack, with the ultimate goal of igniting tensions between the Christian Ossetians, and the Muslim Ingush citizens. Since the Beslan attack, violence has increased near Ossetian-Ingush borders, with reports of kidnappings of ethnic Ingush people by the Ossetian group, Lesnyi Bratia[|.] Lesnyi Bratia reportedly receives financial and logistical support from both the government and security apparatus of North Ossetia[|.]

In addition to land disputes with North Ossetia, Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov issued numerous statements to the press indicating his desire to unite Ingushetia and Chechnya as one single republic[|.] Ingush citizens already took to border-conflict violence in North Ossetia, and also against the FSB who took control of the Ingush district of Dzheirakh in 2006[|.] The possible unification of Chechnya and Ingushetia by Kadyrov is far more severe than either of these instances, and a current categorical opposition towards a unified state by Ingush citizens points to an even worse violent response in the future[|.]

Additional Comments:
None.

Source Reliability: 7 Analytic Confidence: 6

Robert A. Williams

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