Russian+Security+Forces-+Chechnya

=**Despite Decree, Russian Forces Likely To Remain In Chechnya Through 2008**=

**Executive Summary:**
On 2 August 2006, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree calling for a staged withdrawal of Russian forces from Chechnya between 2007 and 2008. However, with Ramzan Kadyrov’s increased political ties to the Kremlin, and the collaboration of Kadyrov’s private army with the Interior Ministry’s troops, significant Security Force withdrawals from Chechnya are unlikely through 2008 despite President Putin’s decree.

Discussion:
On 2 August 2006, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree requiring that the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Interior begin planning a staged withdrawal of Russian forces under their command to start in 2007 and conclude at the end of 2008[|.] The decree confirmed the Putin Administration’s success of its policy of “Chechenization,” which set out to bring stability to Chechnya by creating a loyalist governing body controlled by the Kremlin[|.] As a result, Russia's belief was that Chechnya gained stability through the ability of the Russian Security Forces to control the Chechen insurgent groups.

The idea of “withdrawing” troops, though, is an often-used cover by the Russian Military commanders to bring in reinforcements to Chechnya. A strategy applied by the Russian forces is to transfer troops from the Ministry of Defense to the Ministry of Interior, as an attempt to show a decrease in overall Russian manpower in Chechnya[|.] In May 2006, Sergei Bunin, Chief of Staff of the Interior Forces, announced an increase of 5,000 men in Chechnya to strengthen the southern border with Georgia even though special border guards from the FSB (Federalnaya Sluzhba Bezopasnosti) Security Forces already patrolled the borders[|.]

In relation to this pattern, on 2 October 2007, Dukvakha Abdurakhmanov, the speaker of the People’s Assembly of the Chechen Parliament, proclaimed that the “counter-terrorist operation” came to an end in Chechnya, asserting that there were between 30 to 70 active “militants” left in the republic[|.] While, as recent as 27 March 2007, General Nikolai Rogozhkin, the commander in chief of Russia’s Interior Ministry Forces stated that 70 to 90 armed groups were active, and that these groups consisted of approximately 500 to 800 men[|.] Also, Abdurakhmanov stated that, “Some generals still want to go on with counter-terrorism, but this is not in our interest,” which gives credence to the need for the continuation of security force intervention in combating insurgent activities[|.]

The consolidation of the chain of command in Chechnya of the Russian Security Forces presents the problem of overlapping jurisdictions amongst the FSB, GRU, Russian Military Intelligence, and the Ministry of Interior, MVD[|.] These multiple security groups have a history of competing against each other, making it even more difficult to withdraw any amount of personnel from either Russian security branch. Another hidden source of troops the Russian Security Forces have is the support of the “Kadyrovtsy,” who are professional Chechen fighters that are the most “highly trained, best armed, and battle ready irregular Russian forces" in the North Caucasus[|.] The “Kadyrovtsy” is the private army of Ramzan Kadyrov’s, the current pro-Moscow President of Chechnya.

In September 2006, though, amidst the announcement of the troop withdrawals from Chechnya, the Russian Interior Ministry announced that it dissolved the Regional Operational Headquarters in the North Caucasus in favor of a series of individual operational bases, with a force of 25,000 remaining in Chechnya, to conduct Russian counter-insurgency operations[|.] With the emphasis given to Chechnya by the Russian Ministry of Interior, and their additional use of the Kadyrovtsy, President Kadyrov strengthened his political relationship with the Kremlin, while at the same time acquiring a greater portion of the “consolidated” Security Forces from the dissolution of the Regional Headquarters. However, in November 2006, as the Kremlin built upon its relationship with Kadyrov, the commander of the Russian Military forces in Chechnya, Colonel-General Yevgeny Baryaev, stated a withdrawal of troops was impossible by 2007 because other Generals demanded more troops to efficiently combat the insurgency[|.]

None.
 * Additional Comments:**

Source Reliability: 7 Analytical Confidence: 8

Christopher Anderson

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