Analytical Confidence


Analytic Confidence reflects the level of confidence an analyst has in his or her estimates. Generally speaking, high quality sources reporting a consistent message are likely to increase analytic confidence. In addition, utilizing structured methods that eliminate or limit the impact of bias are legitimate ways to improve analytic confidence. Experience and access to specialized bodies of information are traditionally thought to increase analytic confidence though recent research suggests that, when it comes to forecasting, these are not particularly advantageous. Analytic confidence is ranked on a scale of 1-10, one indicating little to no confidence in the analysis and ten demonstrating that an analyst is highly confident in their analysis.

Analytic confidence and source reliability do not have to be directly tied to one another. It is possible for an analyst to rank source reliability at the upper end of the scale and still not be confident in their analysis.


[Return to Final Estimates, Violence Database, or Link Analysis page]