Socio-Economic Problems Likely To Plague Chechen Society Over The Next Twelve Months


Executive Summary:

The rebuilding of the economic infrastructure in Chechnya is a main objective of president Ramzan Kadyrov through the reconstruction of the capital city of Grozny and the transportation routes connecting Chechnya to other North Caucasian republics. Despite these successes by Kadyrov, it is likely that socio-economic problems continue to plague the Chechen society over the next twelve months due to Kadyrov’s failure to acquire autonomous control over Chechnya’s natural resources and the high unemployment rates within the republic.

Discussion:

The rebuilding of the economic infrastructure in Chechnya is a main objective of president Ramzan Kadyrov through the reconstruction of
grozneft.JPG
Grozneft, An Affiliate Of Rosneft
the capital city of Grozny and the transportation routes connecting Chechnya to other North Caucasian republics. In pursuing economic reformations, Kadyrov is pushing the acquisition of special economic status for Chechnya from the Kremlin in order to spur economic investment internally, from wealthy Chechen businessmen, and externally, through the sale of its natural resources to international consumers. The implementation of special economic zones allows Chechnya’s government to avoid paying customs tariffs and provide additional tax-breaks to willing investors.

In relation to Kadyrov’s pursuit of special economic status for Chechnya, is his equal desire for control of the republics natural . Although the Chechen government holds a forty-nine percent share in Chechnya’s Moscow-controlled oil production company, Grozneft, Kadyrov claims the need for a controlling share in the production of his country’s oil. However, with the existence of the Kadyrov Foundation, Kadyrov’s supposed philanthropic organization, Kremlin officials such as Igor Sechin, the deputy chief of staff of Vladimir Putin’s administration, question whether Kadyrov will invest the profits from the natural resources back into restoring Chechnya economic infrastructure.

Despite these aspirations by Kadyrov, significant socio-economic problems still exist within Chechnya, specifically the plight of the Chechen youth. According to Swiss Peace, as of May 2007, approximately 300,000 Chechens remain unemployed out of a population of just over one million; however due to the clan structure of Chechnya’s society, estimates also range as high as 70-80 percent. The lack of a focus on creating jobs by Kadyrov, not only for the youth but for all Chechens, threatens the stability of Chechnya as the socio-economic conditions provide a safe haven environment for the recruiting of these disenfranchised citizens to join the insurgency.

Additional Comments:

None.


Source Reliability: 8
Analytic Confidence: 8

Christopher Anderson


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